Leader: Yoshiyuki Yamamoto
With society becoming more complex and uncertainty about the future increasing, there is greater interest in "scenario planning," a method that copes with future uncertainty by organizing and analyzing potential uncertainty. The purpose of this research is to utilize scenario planning in the field of macro economic forecasts.
Focus
The starting point for scenario planning is to not deny the existence of uncertainty in the real world and to accept the fact we cannot necessarily forecast the future accurately. Consequently, the essence of this concept differs significantly from that of conventional "forecasting." However, by integrating or simultaneously using both types of methods, it may be possible to present higher quality outlooks concerning the future.
As Phase I of the research, by utilizing scenario planning to make outlooks about future industrial structure, we work to provide information that is useful for composing business plans and strategies. Here forward, together with extending the scope of our activities to medium-term economic forecasts in general, we will also endeavour to support strategy-developing in specific business fields.
