#18:One Germany

Angela Merkel served as Chancellor of Germany for 16 years, beginning in 2005. She was the first chancellor to come from former East Germany following the reunification. With her rise to leadership, one might say that Germany truly became united. In March 2020, as the world was gripped by the COVID-19 pandemic, Merkel addressed the German people directly in a televised speech. She described the pandemic as Germany’s greatest challenge since World War II and called on citizens to respond to the crisis. Calmly explaining the need for restrictions on movement to prevent the spread of the virus, she expressed empathy toward every individual and succeeded in giving the public both courage and reassurance. As a leader who valued diversity and dialogue, Chancellor Merkel also emphasized Germany’s humanitarian responsibility toward refugees from countries like Syria and Afghanistan. Declaring “We can do this,” she led efforts to accept one million refugees. Merkel also worked to strengthen ties with Russia, repeatedly meeting with President Vladimir Putin and advancing the construction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.

When Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and forcibly annexed it, Merkel harshly criticized Moscow. However, she did not sever economic ties with Russia and instead pushed forward with the construction of Nord Stream 2, increasing Germany’s dependence on Russian energy. Having committed to phasing out nuclear power, Germany’s business sector sought a stable and affordable energy supply—a demand that the pipeline project with Russia was intended to meet. Her China policy similarly separated human rights concerns from economic interests. Merkel visited China almost every year, building relationships with Presidents Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping. On each visit, she worked to secure trade agreements and expand investment opportunities that would benefit the German economy. As a result, China became Germany’s largest export market and a powerful driver of its economic growth.

On the other hand, the rapid acceptance of immigrants shook the stability of German society and led to the rise of far-right forces. Alternative for Germany (AfD) was founded in 2013 with a platform of economic liberalism and skepticism toward the EU, but during the refugee crisis, it shifted sharply to the right, adopting an anti-immigrant and anti-Islam stance. In May 2025, Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution designated AfD as a far-right group subject to surveillance. Germany’s dependence on Russian energy further deepened; in the 2021 fiscal year, about 52% of the natural gas it imported came from Russia. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the German government rapidly reduced its direct procurement of natural gas from Russia, which now stands at zero. With respect to business with China, factors such as China’s economic slowdown, intensifying competition with Chinese companies, and growing national security concerns have caused German trade with China to stall. In 2024, China lost its position as Germany’s top export destination for the first time in nine years, replaced by the United States. This reflects an era in which it has become increasingly difficult to separate economics from national security.

In 1862, Otto von Bismarck became Prime Minister of Prussia and declared that “the great questions of the day will be decided not by speeches and majority decisions, but by iron and blood.” He used the bureaucracy and military as political tools to pursue domestic reform and international success. Through victories in the Danish War, the Austro-Prussian War, and the Franco-Prussian War, Bismarck founded the new German Empire in 1871, the foundation of modern Germany. During the Bismarck era, Germany expanded its railway network, developed its coal and steel industries, and established a workers’ insurance system, raising the standard of living for the population. However, because German unification occurred later than in other European countries, Germany entered the race for global influence late, earning it the label of the “latecomer empire” and fueling a sense of urgency to acquire global influence and interests. Externally, this led to increased tensions with Britain and France over colonial interests in Africa and Asia, and rivalry with Russia over influence in the Balkans. Domestically, the military and conservatives veered further to the right, aiming to deflect workers’ discontent toward foreign adversaries. Ultimately, this trajectory led Germany toward the First World War.

In recent years, Germany’s strong economy was supported by three major pillars: U.S.-led security, inexpensive energy supplies from Russia, and a rapidly expanding Chinese market. However, all three have collapsed due to America’s turn toward national self-interest, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the shrinking of the Chinese market. In the February federal election, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) became the largest party. However, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to second place with 152 seats in the Bundestag. As a result, the CDU/CSU had no choice but to form a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). I happened to be visiting Berlin on May 6, the day of the chancellor selection vote, and clearly remember the sense of unease among researchers at the think tank I was visiting when Friedrich Merz failed to secure a majority in the first round of voting. Thus, the new Merz administration set off with an unstable political foundation.

Germany has long adhered to strict fiscal discipline, with constitutional limits on federal debt. However, in March, these restrictions were eased, paving the way for increased spending on military expansion and social infrastructure. In Lithuania, Germany has begun its first solo overseas military deployment since World War II. There is even discussion of reinstating conscription. Chancellor Merz advocated for greater energy efficiency and a return to nuclear energy, but was forced to abandon the plan due to opposition from coalition partner SPD. Energy reform, which is crucial for reviving German industry, has no clear path forward. Relations with China, which supports Russia, remain difficult to repair, and relying on the Chinese market as a growth engine is no longer viable. Germany now stands at a historic crossroads—in domestic politics, foreign policy, the economy, and national security. The world is watching to see whether the country will once again achieve a strong, united Germany, in the manner of Merkel, or in the manner of Bismarck.