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Hitachi

Hitachi Research Institute

Economic Outlook

Latest economic forecasts for Japan, the U.S., Europe, and China, etc

2024 Top10 Risks

Threat to Humanity : Existential Risk

1.Degradation of environment and climate change

・Deterioration of the natural environment and intensity of disasters
・Synergies and trade-offs between different climate and environmental measures
・Sharpening conflict between developed and developing countries for decarbonization

2.Explosive Progress / misuse of AI

・Technological, social, and economic revolution surrounding AI, and on the other hand, large-scale cyber-attacks, AI misuse and military use
・Rapid increase in energy consumption

3.Dissolution of multilateral framework

・Absence of governance in the international community, and the dysfunction of multilateral framework such as UN/WTO/WHO

Fragmenting World

4.Two wars making one world impossible

・Ukraine: Stagnation of the U.S. economic and military aid, fuel and food price uncertainty due to Russia's continued weaponization of resources
・Middle East in flux (return to old Middle East), isolation and declining status of Israel and the U.S. in the international community 

5.Acceleration of social division through the U.S. presidential election

・Sharpening partisan conflict through the preliminary elections; the presidential election aggravates divisions over political, economic, and social policies
・Major policy shift in the event of a Trump administration

6.Geopolitical state in flux following Taiwan's presidential election

・In case of Lai Ching-te win, the independent faction becoming more active; in contrast, the economic and military pressure from mainland China increasing
・Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je taking a neutral position, mitigating risks; but expansion of China's influence with the re-establishment of dialogue

Global Economy in Fragile Stability

7.Global economy entering stagflation

・Rising raw materials and food prices due to war and extreme weather
・Political uncertainty associated with the U.S. Presidential election, as well as economic factors such as renewed inflation and labor shortage

8.New Washington Consensus : Expansion of protectionism

・Protectionist economic security policy becomes the new normal
・Expansion of exclusive regulations for control over critical technologies, data, and resources

9.Economic stagnation in China

・Deflation, Debt(increase in local debt), Demography(aging society/population decline), De-risking

10.Global financial crisis originating in the U.S.

・Continuation of credit uncertainty arising from the U.S. SVB failure
・Liquidity crisis of financial institutions and credit contraction due to falling asset prices under tightening monetary policy

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